The continued bearish performance of the broader crypto market has significantly reduced the likelihood of an Altcoin Season happening in the current cycle, with the majority of alts declining sharply. Despite the magnitude of the decline in the alt market, analysts still point to the potential for further decrease in the market in the next few months.
Bitcoin’s Strength Pushes Altcoins Into Bearish Territory
In an insightful X post, Mags, a crypto expert and trader, outlined the forthcoming journey for Altcoins as the market struggles to regain upside momentum. Mags has shed light on the potential period that the alts market could rally once again after market volatility diminishes.
Delving into the Altcoin Season Index, a key metric in determining alts movements, the expert has highlighted two crucial zones to help gauge the market’s status. The first zone is above 75, which identifies an Altseason, while the second zone is below 25, representing a Bitcoin Season.
It is worth noting that the index has fallen 24, implying that the market is in a Bitcoin season. This index has been dropping since it reached its peak on December 7, 2024, and altcoins have been witnessing substantial dump and corrections.
With the index displaying a Bitcoin season, Mags predicted that alts are likely to keep declining for the time being. However, he expects the index to push back toward the upward direction, changing the course of the alt markets. This is because each time the index dips below 25, it spends a few weeks or months there before bottoming out and surging up over 75, for an Altcoin Season, considering past trends.
A further look at past data shows that the index has moved into a Bitcoin season 7 out of 9 times, particularly between Q2 and Q3. When the index rises, data reveals that it usually reaches a peak in just a few months.
In the meantime, the index will remain below 25 before turning around. As it trends downward, buying the dips rather than attempting to time the bottom precisely is usually the best approach because every bounce is V-shaped and swift.
Mags stresses the importance of accumulating alts in the next few weeks or months as the assets present a steep discount. His strategy is backed by an impending strong up and the 4-year cycle rally, which may be the final leg-up before the market becomes bearish if history repeats itself.
A Massive Alts Rally On The Horizon?
Key developments on the alt market are suggesting a turnaround from bearish to bullish. Once the market shifts toward the upside, Captain Faibik, a crypto analyst, believes that a massive altcoins bull rally could be on the horizon.
The much-anticipated rally might be closer than it seems due to a lengthy Rising Wedge formation on the BTC.D chart in the weekly time frame. Captain Faibik expects an altseason to begin once a breakdown from the pattern occurs.
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