Frequently posts here speculate along the lines of 'should I buy Bitcoin now' with the apparent hope of gain for later sale back to fiat. Sometimes these posts theorise the dollar is in decline and Bitcoin might be the new global reserve...suggesting huge potential growth in value...
However seldom do these posts of greed and hopium consider the other major contender for global monetary hegemony- Chinas digital Yuan, sometimes known as DCEP.
With China now dominating global mercantile production and trade China clearly intends to provision an alternative to the USD/SWIFT system of international banking settlement- and the digital Yuan is designed for this purpose. Greatly reduced costs and much increased speed of settlement seem likely, but more significant would be immunity from US sanctions.
Most nations are highly reliant upon Chinese trade for both imports of cheap mass produced goods and increasingly higher tech products- most of the USAs big techs rely upon Chinese assembly lines and many on Chinese technicians and AI.
Just as once USA dominated global manufacturing and trade, China increasingly occupies this role.
How many nations could afford to refuse if China required trade with it to be denominated in Yuan.
Obviously Bitcoin is an alternative which China and other BRICS and non aligned nations could adopt for USD free trade settlement but Bitcoin has so far not been received with much enthusiasm by the BRICS, rather more attempts to ban it.
So when considering future Bitcoin price prospects these speculations need to consider the likely shape of the future international monetary system. Will it remain dominated by USD and a relatively tolerant western attitude to Bitcoin, or will Chinese Yuan become dominant and seek to crush Bitcoin opportunities?
Bitcoin exists in the real world and must withstand all forces and pressures upon it and we in considering its prospects must take into account all the relevant forces at work.
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