Crypto isn’t immune from macroeconomic conditions.

Mainly I see chatter about an impending bull run starting any day now. And personally I hope that’s true, but crypto still trades like a risk-on asset. Until risk-on equities on the stock market start pumping don’t expect crypto to miraculously catch a significant bid for no reason.

The latest CPI data is encouraging, but really until the Fed pivots and starts lowering interest rates is probably closer to when a real bull run starts. Also there is chatter the SEC might try to throw a curveball and label Ethereum a security. Not sure how that works since they just got dunked on by a much more centralized project like Ripple last year, but I never said they were smart.

The Biden administration has bewildering declared war on crypto in an election year that not even anti-crypto proponents were asking for. So I guess we see how that pans out for them.

So still plenty of headwinds to be cleared up before a real bull run in earnest can form. Ironically a recession or recession scare would probably get us to a bull run the fastest. The Fed would be forced to pivot and as long as it’s a shallow recession the markets would rebound quickly. And risk-on assets love the money printer.