 | Apologies for the repost - I made a mistake in the title and I couldn't edit it. See the real-time analysis of this portfolio at https://degenomic.com TL;DR
Macro OverviewIt's been a tumultuous month for crypto, driven by a liquidity crisis that led to the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange FTX. Outflows from an exchange are usually considered a bullish signal as it suggests investors are HODL'ing with a long term perspective and not looking to immediately sell. In the case of FTX, investors did not trust the exchange, and the subsequent bank run ultimately led to it's demise. The contagion has spread to other parts of the ecosystem, with lenders such as Genesis and exchanges like Gemini having to disclosure their exposure to FTX and suspend withdrawals. BlockFi have filed for bankruptcy, whilst Kraken announced they are laying off 30% of their total headcount. It would not surprise me to see other big projects fall in the coming months, as the effects of contagion are not always immediate. The last week of November saw crypto markets find some relief as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that a tightening to 50bp hikes could arrive by "the December meeting". Bitcoin gained 2% week on week on the news, whilst Ethereum gained 6% - all in the hope of a smaller hike. Performance DetailA terrible month for crypto in general in the wake of the FTX fallout which resulted in a -16.01% return for November (PnL -$338.53). This contrasts starkly against October's return of 15.36%. Total inflows for this month stood at $179.08. The lifetime return of the portfolio is now back in the red, having given up all of last months performance. DOGE and MATIC are single handedly holding the portfolio up; despite a November return of -13.08% for DOGE, it's lifetime return is 63.82%. Similarly, MATIC had a November return of 2.56% and a lifetime return of 27.02%. SOL had an abysmal month, it's -54.53% return due to its close ties with FTX; SBF being one of the L1 blockchains biggest supporters. The TVL (total value locked) in the Solana network is down approximately 70% in November, largely as a result of FTX's collapse. AVAX (-30.21%) and SHIB (-23.45%) were also heavily deep in the red. That leaves our performance for 2022 so far at:
Asset AllocationThe portfolio currently holds: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOT, DOGE, SHIB, MATIC, AVAX, LINK and RUNE. DOGE's overally strong performance means it occupies 13.00% of the total value of the portfolio. This contrasts to SOL which occupies 3.41%, despite both DOGE and SOL having similar amounts of inflows. Crypto Fear & Greed IndexThe Crypto Fear and Greed Index has historically shown strong correlation with the Degenomic portfolio. Here we can see this continue to play out, with an increase in the index resulting in stronger performance in the portfolio. The dark red line represents a period of 'Extreme Fear', the light red represents 'Fear' and the white section represents 'Neutral'. Over the last few weeks, sentiment continues to remain negative, with a FGI score largely remaining in the 20s. Final CommentsThank you for getting this far and for showing an interest in this project. As someone who doesn't have the time to watch charts all day, this was set up as an easy, emotionless and consistent strategy to gain exposure to crypto, and I am curious to see how this portfolio performs over the long term. Seeing the portfolio ebb and flow in real-time also gives one a perspective for how volatile the crypto universe is. I hope you've found this post interesting and gives you some inspiration for your own adventures in crypto. Feel free to get in touch or follow the project on Twitter where I occasionally provide intra month updates. If you have any questions, or suggestions for the portfolio and/or analysis drop me a line on Twitter/Reddit. [link] [comments] |
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