ELI5: Why would the halving affect prices at all this time?

Since we can't seem to talk about anything else here anymore I might as well dive deeper into the halving. I have two reasons why I personally think it won't affect prices but I'm open to people correcting me.

1. With 93% of BTC already mined, why does it matter how long the remaining 7% takes to mine? I can understand the effects of halvings early on were massive, new BTC was bountiful and suddenly new supplies were sliced significantly. But almost all of the mining is already done. This is the area I welcome some education on, if I'm overlooking some core concept here.

2. The one I feel is more important: everyone expects it to pump after the halving, so this is already priced in. If anything it feels like there will be a large "sell the news" scenario. To be clear I feel BTC is largely undervalued and should be standing higher than it currently is but I don't feel like the halving is the catalyst for this to occur