Tldr Interests rates still rising short term, recession is still likely. Still bullish since this is what markets seem to be expecting, and we're most likely within several months of the apex of interest rate hike cycle.
It's that time again. It looks like markets have nearly fully priced in a 25 basis points hike (0.25%) for a target range of 5.00 - 5.25%
Anything above or below that would most likely make crypto markets sell off or rally accordingly. And most likely not move markets if the announcement comes in at 5 -5.25%
Maybe I'm just looking through rose colored glasses but I'm seeing core inflation turning over and us being really close to the apex of interest rate hikes.
In my mind that means when bad economic numbers start coming if from what will probably be a relatively mild recession markets will be more interested in the fact that central banks will be switching to a more accommodative monetary policy and when we start growing again out of a possible recession we'll be growing with an inflation rate much closer to 2%.
Think the only thing that could pull some air out of stock, crypto, and any other risk on asset markets would be either an unexpected increase in inflation or a deeper and more prolonged recession than what's expected.
What do all you think?
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