I traded based on this subs sentiment and doubled initial investment in ~1 month ( without leverage )

A month ago when the green started I read through the sub especially the daily thread. Since the volume and Institution money was back in crypto I opened a testnet account, loaded up exactly 1 BTC ( ~22.000$ at that time ) and started my experiment:

What happens if I actually do the opposite of this sub‘s sentiment?

17th july: It’s a bulltrap / pump and dump mood.

Most people were convinced it was just related to the ETH merge announcement and it’ll fall again any day. This was the weekend before the stock market rallied. I started the first trade going all in on ETH long trade.

Fast foreword end of July: already up ~+50%. The sub started becoming bullish. „The bottom is in“ and „we missed the bottom“ comments are getting more common. I liquidated the trade waiting for the new buy signal.

1 week later

The skeptical sentiment comes back. „It’s time for a pull back before we pump again“ and „correction“ is going around. Threads warning of a bull trap that nothing has changed in the Macro economic. I opened a new trade at that time for 33.000$

10th August: another massive pump

„The bear market might be over“ - first signs of people convincing others that stock market are moving way ahead and bear markets are shorter every cycle. CPI turned out well and people are euphoric buying crypto. Sell signal for my trade = currently at 38.000$ value

Couple days later: 25k BTC & 2k ETH

It is happening. Posts and daily have a lot of ???????????????? emojis. With a lot of upvotes. Every neutral / skeptical opinion is getting downvoted. Bullrun has officially started for some people. SHORT SIGNAL ALL IN

Since then ETH fell -20%. Or in that case the 38k turned into 45600$. The short is still open because the sentiment is still positive about a comeback after Friday / Saturday dump.

TL;DR: Don’t listen or take any financial advice from Reddit or any other social media out there. Majority of discussions around price movement is around daily or partly hour/minute candles. Institutions invest months ahead and react to uncertainty / sudden news. Crypto can sometimes be irrational and nobody knows shit about fuck