I would like to get some insight on this thought process, all opinions welcome.

The narrative is that bitcoin always has a minus 80% bear market followed by a bull market. I like to remain optimistic therefore I do believe the bear market lows are in and the rest of this year will see increasing demand and higher prices.

However..

In order to remain unbiased I would like to entertain new ideas and thought processes.

In 2008 as a recession became obvious everything sold off including gold which fell for almost a year before entering a raging bull market between 2009 and 2012. The idea being that in a liquidity event like that everything falls. The 2s 10s treasury yield curve inversion has crossed negative which always preceeds a recession and if this is correct again it points to a recession beginning around Q3 this year and because of lagging GDP data the recession wont be officially acknoledged until early next year.

If this happens and all assets sell off then that should mean bitcoin will likely fall through to the end of this year but then next year enter a multi year raging bull market alongside gold.

Given that bitcoin is already down 70% to 80% is this a likely scenario? Or during a recession led asset sell off would bitcoin simply stagnate and trade sideways instead of falling?

Theres another possibility which is the fact this could be considered a rolling recession causing early sell offs instead of selling off during the actual recession meaning bitcoin has had its falls already and is ready to enter a bull market. And the other possibility is that because inflation is a bigger concern now than in 2008 bitcoin could benefit because of its scarcity.

It seems like the best case scenario is the bear market is over and a recession/financial crisis would trigger a safe haven bull market. The worst case is bitcoin falls to new lows through the end of this year as a global recession becomes painfully obvious, before entering a raging bull market in 2024. While a middle ground possibility is that due to the nature of this being a rolling recession the recessionary falls have already happened early and bitcoin will rally during the recession.

Are there any insights out there into whether bitcoin would rally as a recession becomes obvious or fall further first?

My hope is that bitcoin and gold have already finished their initial recessionary sell off early and are waiting to strengthen through the rest of this year and rally hard in 2024.