Interpolating the next bull run given previous bull market highs and lows from 2013-2022.

Analysis of data done by a GPT and is obviously highly speculative since we are just interpolating.

Bitcoin Price Projection for 2024 Halving with Diminishing Returns

Historical Growth Rates with Diminishing Returns

1. 2013 Bull Cycle:

   • Low: $13
   • High: $1,100
   • Growth: ~84.62 times

2. 2017 Bull Cycle:

   • Low: $200
   • High: $20,000
   • Growth: 100 times

3. 2020-2021 Bull Cycle:

   • Low: $3,400
   • High: $69,000
   • Growth: ~20.29 times

Observing Diminishing Returns

• From 2013 to 2017, growth increased from 84.62 times to 100 times.
• From 2017 to 2020-2021, growth decreased further to 20.29 times.

Projecting 2024 Cycle with 50% Diminishing Returns

• Assuming a diminishing return, we estimate a lower growth rate than the 20.29 times seen in the 2020-2021 cycle.
• Hypothetical Reduced Growth Rate: Let's assume a 50% reduction from the 2020-2021 cycle's growth rate: 10.15 times.

Applying to the 2024 Cycle

• Assuming a recent low point for Bitcoin at $20,000.

• Projected High for 2024 Cycle:

  • $20,000 x 10.15 = $203,000 (rounded off)

• Projected Low Post-High for 2024 Cycle:

  • Assuming an 80% retracement from the projected high: $203,000 x 0.20 = $40,600 (rounded off)

Applying 80% Diminishing Returns

• Applying an 80% reduction to the 20.29 times growth rate of the 2020-2021 cycle: 20.29 x 0.20 = 4.058 times.

Projecting 2024 Cycle with 80% Diminishing Returns

• Assuming a recent low point for Bitcoin at $20,000.

• Projected High for 2024 Cycle:

  • $20,000 x 4.058 = $81,160 (rounded off)

• Projected Low Post-High for 2024 Cycle:

  • Assuming an 80% retracement from the projected high: $81,160 x 0.20 = $16,232 (rounded off)

Conclusion

With a 50% diminishing returns factored in, our speculative projection suggests a potential high of around $203,000 and a post-high low of approximately $40,600 for Bitcoin around the 2024 halving. These figures are highly speculative and should be treated as theoretical projections rather than concrete predictions. The actual future market performance of Bitcoin can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including global economic conditions, technological developments, and regulatory changes.

With an 80% diminishing return applied, our speculative projection suggests a potential high of around $81,160 and a post-high low of approximately $16,232 for Bitcoin around the 2024 halving. This projection is speculative and should be treated as a theoretical exercise rather than a precise forecast. The actual future market performance of Bitcoin can be influenced by a myriad of factors, including global economic conditions, technological advancements, and regulatory changes.