Most of you have forgotten what a real capitulation looks like

So many people think that now must be the best time to buy btc because it is already down -40% from peak.

The truth is that the bitcoin bear market can go much lower than that on a final capitulation and most people will probably say bitcoin is broken when it does go that low.

$10k btc bottom would not surprise me at all. People forget so easily how volatile bitcoin is. It could wick to $10k and be back above $20k all in one day.

I see analysts calling for $1mil bitcoin by 2030 but none of them tell you how low it could go before then. My calculations indicate < 26% probability that bitcoin has closed below the local bottom for this cycle.

Bitcoin could face over -20% downside just to get back to the previous local bottom. Taking all of this into consideration, with the current price of $38,527, bitcoin is trading at a premium relative to the market risks. I expect this gap to close within the medium term with optimal risk-adjusted entry target ranging from $35k-$25k.