Hey Everyone,

I've been tracking some of these geopolitical events for a little bit now in regard to the dollar and in light of everything that's been happening, I thought I'd share some of my notes. I've also been away on vacation for a bit and it looks like a lot has happened so I still need to update what I have here but I hope this provides some insight into what may be happening.

None of this is meant to serve as prophecy or financial advice. I'm not advocating for anything. This is strictly just information. Feel free to fact check it.

How is this relevant? If the dollar does collapse, a whole of people are probably going to wish they had, at the very least, diversified into Bitcoin.

Here are my notes (if the formatting is off, give me a few to fix it):

Possible Collapse Of The US Dollar

• Note: Most of this comes from Andy Schectman

Timeline

• 1944-Bretton Woods Agreement
  • Countries would peg their currency to the dollar and the dollar would be pegged to gold at $35 per oz
  • Countries bought dollars with gold
• 1971-Nixon suspends the dollar's gold standard
  • Concerned that the U.S. was printing more dollars than it had gold to fund the Vietnam war, the president of France sent a ship full of cash to buy its gold back
  • This sparked Nixon to suspend the gold standard temporarily
  • The gold standard is still suspended
• 1974-Henry Kissinger brokers a joint military cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia for military protection in exchange for OPEC valuing oil in dollars globally
  • Since this deal, almost every country has had to own dollars in order to buy oil
  • Hence "petrodollar"
• 2017-German Bundesbank repatriates its gold back from US
  • This was at the end of a six-year precious metals bear market
  • This was a really weird move
  • Within a few weeks of this, the banks of Austria, Hungary, Turkey, Czech National Bank, Dutch National Bank, followed in kind
• 2018-The same group that repatriated their gold bought more gold as a group than the 60 previous years combined
• 2019-The previous numbers from 2018 are up nearly 100%
• 2019-Bank of International Settlements quietly reclassified gold as the world's only other tier 1 asset
  • Since 1944, only US dollars and treasuries were tier 1 assets
  • Gold was tier 3 which meant only 50% was valued on the balance-sheet and became tier 1 which made it equal to cash
  • Were these banks clued in by the BIS?
• 2020-China's Belt and Road Initiative
  • Represents over 75% of the world population
  • 45% of global GDP, even before it's industrialized
  • Contracts are mostly settled in the digital yuan
• 2020-International Monetary Fund (IMF) says they want a "New Bretton Woods"
• 2020-Commitment of Traders Report from COMEX
  • Typically only commercial banks and speculators
  • Now there is a new list of reportables called the "others" which are family offices and sovereign wealth funds who are considered the most well-informed private investors
  • "... to this point in my career, less than 1% of COMEX contracts ever stood for delivery," - Andy Schectman
  • The "others" drained the market of physical supply
  • In 2020, took off more silver than in a typical decade and more gold than the Bank of Japan has in its official holdings
• 2021-Russia, Turkey, India, Poland, China, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Thailand, Japan, Brazil, Czech Republic all copiously accumulating gold
  • Not just buying gold, but buying and taking delivery of it
• 2021-One day after America "surrenders" Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and Russia announce a joint military cooperation agreement
  • The same type of agreement that Kissinger brokered with Saudi Arabia in 1974 that started the petrodollar
• 2021-The very next day, Nigeria announces the same agreement between them and Russia
  • Nigeria is currently selling their oil to China for Yuan denominated bonds that can be converted to gold immediately on the Shanghai Gold Exchange
  • Called the petro-yuan bond
  • This is how countries can side-step U.S. sanctions
  • (Saudi Arabia is now doing this too)
• 2022-U.S. weaponized the dollar against Russia using SWIFT
  • America told one country that they can no longer freely use the global reserve currency
  • Russia is pushed into the open arms of China
  • Were other countries, including the BRICS nations, wondering if they were or could be next?
• 2022-Russian, Iran, India corridor
  • Links northwest Russia to the Persian Gulf by way of the Caspian Sea in Iran
  • Everyone but these three countries have to go all the way around
• 2022-Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia announce they are contemplating joing BRICS
• 2022-Turkey Looks to Ditch Dollar in Payments for Russian Energy
• 2022-In first seven months of the year, Turkey has purchased more gold than any other central bank
• 2022-China has dumped over 100 billion in bonds
• 2022-147 countries are on the Belt and Road, including all of the 13 OPEC countries
• 2022-Six of the OPEC countries have joined or are in the process of joining BRICS
• 2022-Russia and China accounce a new world reserve currency
• 2022-Gold is leaving the COMEX market at the fastest rate ever
• 2022-Silver being withdrawn from the London Metals Exchange to the lowest amount in recorded history

BRICS Nations

• Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
• Over a dozen other countries have applied to join, including Saudi Arabia and Mexico

Edit 1: 4/4/23 ~9:00am EST

I am not saying that the dollar will be replaced with another reserve currency (or BTC). What I think would most likely happen if the dollar lost its role as the global reserve currency is that countries would trade with several commodity backed currencies.

Edit 2: 4/4/23 2:10pm EST

• 2022-Iran and Saudi Arabia, two countries who have hated each other, are now building a railway between each other
• 2023-Egypt joins the BRICS Development Bank
• 3/22/23-President Ruto Says Dollar Demand Will Ease In ‘A Couple Of Weeks’
  • President Ruto tells country that demand for dollars should fall now that their oil imports can be bought with Kenya Shillings
• 3/27/23-Possibility of de-dollarization hits mainstream media
• 3/28/23-China completes first yuan-settled LNG trade
  • China to France
• 3/29/23-China, Brazil strike deal to ditch dollar for trade
• 4/1/23-India Abandons US Dollar In Trade Deal With Malaysia
  • "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also authorized 18 countries, including Russia, Germany, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania, to open Vostro accounts, which could lead to the strengthening of the rupee."
• 4/3/23-Prime Minister of Malaysia says they no longer need to depend on the dollar
• 4/3/23-China’s Yuan Replaces Dollar as Most Traded Currency in Russia