Weird as it seems, this BTC halving cycle has been far less volatile than the two previous ones. BTC is the most stabile it's ever been.

A good chart to look at this is here:

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

you can see that the last two cycles, btc has entered the halving as the low point. in November 2012, the price of $11.60, then just one year later it was at $1,200, that's a roughly 10,000% gain, before crashing to $111, or roughly -90% shortly after.

the next cycle, btc entered at $650 in July of 2016, then, 1 and a half years later, it hit almost $20,000, a roughly 1,600% gain, before crashing again to a low of around $2,800, or an -85% drop. so already, the 2nd cycle was way less volatile than the 1st.

then there's this halving, we entered at $9,000 in May of 2020, and hit a peak of $68,000 in November of 2021, a 766% return, which while awesome, is a far cry from the 10,000% gain of the 1st cycle and we've so far seen a roughly 50% drop from the all time high, which is a far cry from the -85% drop we saw last halving.

this could mean that BTC is maturing, becoming a more stabile asset each cycle. BTC likely won't ever even 10x again during a single cycle, and BTC investors will have to adjust expectations on returns going forward, which is probably a good thing for adoption. still, even a few hundred % every 4 years is a home run investment, so this is by no means is meant to be FUD. BTC still represents one of the greatest risk reward tradeoffs in the world.