Have a seat by the fire, and I will tell you the classic Christmas story of the chronicles of 2017. THE PRELUDEIt all started on a December day, in 2016, very much like today. At that time, I no longer had any crypto. I had already sold all of my coins, and after the Mt Gox mess, never looked back. Until Bitcoin caught my eye again. That month, Bitcoin was reaching prices I had not seen before. Last I remembered, the price was around $300-$400. And now I see prices well over $700. Something was going really well in the Bitcoin universe. Maybe I need to start paying attention again. But I didn't buy yet. December 2016- Prices: $750-$1,150 It went parabolic, followed by a big crash down to $800. So I thought this must be the bear market. Maybe I should consider buying. But it actually quickly recovered. This was something similar to what we've already seen in 2013. An initial spike, with a big crash early on. EARLY 2017At the beginning of 2017, I started paying more attention, and looked at how far along things were. And started gaining a little more trust again. Shaking off my Mt GOX trauma. March 2017- Prices: $930-$1,275 In March 2017, I finally did it, I jumped in. I made my GDAX account (the old Coinbase pro), and started buying a little bit of Bitcoin. I saw there was a little dip from $1,275 down to around $1,160. So I decided to "buy the dip". Of course, as always, it dipped even more and went all the way down to the low $900s. SUMMER 2017June-July 2017- Price $1,990-$2,990. After that little dip, things bounced back, in a big way. Things were going great. Bitcoin looked like it was about to break $3K. I was thrilled but I was starting to become mindful of flying too close to the sun. It dipped back down from a $3K rejection, and started stagnating. Then it crashed below $2K. I panicked a little and sold a little. Big mistake. It was a very brief dip, and sprung back. When I saw the confirmation that things were back to normal, I bought a little more. Peaks, and crashes into despair along a bull market. Is this starting to feel familiar? LATE SUMMER 2017September 2017. Prices: $3,200-$4,600 Things went into "fantastic mode" in August. Bitcoin managed to finally break past $3K and reached a new ATH at $4,900. In September we had another crash, when the market just couldn't make a breakthrough past $5k. We dropped in the lower $3Ks. Again, it was pretty scary, and some people thought this was the end. The bull run might be over. Again it recovered, and even more quickly than before. The market started to recover increasingly more quickly from any dips. That started to generate a lot of confidence, and maybe even overconfidence. We entered the real FOMO phase, and started having all the obnoxious lambotards taking over the sub. This is also the month I first got into alt coins, and bought my first Ethereum. AUTUMN 2017November 2017- Prices: $5,900-$7,500 This is the fire phase. When get to that phase, you will definitely know. Things were really on fire in November. The hype was starting to get pretty crazy. By that point, I thought I had really pushed my luck to the limit. I didn't want to fly too close to the sun. There had already been so many times I thought we had hit the peak. I was sure the price would crash now. I pulled out my Bitcoins at $7K, and only kept my Ethereum, with a big sigh of relief. Especially when the price dipped below $6K. For a moment there, I thought I was the smartest guy in the world. I thought I was Michael Burry, foreseeing the final crash. But I ate my words very quickly, when the market bounced right back. I was in disbelief. I didn't want to touch Bitcoin, and bought more alt coins instead. In retrospective, it may not make a lot of sense with what we know today. Keep in mind, at the time we didn't know that much about alt coins, nor how that market behaved. You usually bought alt-coins, thinking they could be the next Bitcoin, and have a Bitcoin run of their own. The Peak.Early December 2017- Prices: $11K-$15K Bitcoin eventually went way past $10K, and even to $15K. I was really in disbelief. I kept telling people to watch out, this thing will definitely crash. But I was downvoted by the lambo club. And proven wrong with every new high. It did start to feel like 3am at a nightclub. When the crowd is at its drunkest and highest, although it may feel like the party will never stop, it's all about to come to an abrupt end. Mid December- Prices $15K-$19.5K When the club didn't close, and the show went on, I started to doubt myself. Shit, maybe I'm the one who is wrong here. Maybe this thing will never crash. When the price went above $17K, and it seemed like every dip failed and got eaten up, I seriously considered buying back in. But I didn't. At least I still had a little bit in alt coins, and they were also on fire. The CrashEnd of December- Prices $19.5K-$12K When you least expect it, expect it. It finally happened. It crashed, or started to crash. Was it because of the opening of CME futures? Was it because of the upcoming Chinese new year? A lot of people tried to point fingers at anything. The reaction was still mixed. Many people believed this was just another brief crash, while some thought this could be the one. But there had been so many fakeouts, it was still hard to tell. For the last few weeks of December, there was a lot of confusion. I bought in a little bit, the discount was too tempting. THE DAWN OF THE BEAR MARKETJanuary 2018- Prices: $17,500-$10,100. About half the people had realized by now that the bull run had come to an end. Interestingly, there was still a lot of buzz for alts. While the reality hit the market that this was a serious crash, and possibly a bear market, there was still some optimism about Bitcoin going no lower than $10K, and things slowly climbing back over the course of the year. This is partly why alt coins were still big. There was still the belief that they could be the next Bitcoin, and could be cheap to buy right now. It was later discovered to be a fatal mistake, as most of these alt coins dropped more than 80%, many over 90%. Goblin Town.Bitcoin didn't climb back, and did drop below $10K. February-June 2018- $11K-$6K In February we had a nice little fakeout and bull trap. For a moment, many people thought the worst was behind us. But reality finally hit everyone. And any lingering optimism was gone. The Lambo club had vanished completely. Activity in crypto subs and forums plummeted. The mood was something like out of a bread line of the great depression. Brother can you spare me some BCH? Oh wait, those became worthless a few months later during the Hash Wars. Because on top of all this, we had the Hash Wars, a nasty black swan event in the middle of a bear winter. We weren't just in a winter, we were far below the snow. We were in goblin town. How did I come out? I made a lot of mistakes, but still managed to do really well in 2017. But paid back a lot of it in the crypto winter. I learned to be a little more conservative, check my emotions at the door, and build a little strategy of my own. Kind of a hybrid of DCA. So no, I'm not a millionaire yet. And still very far from it. And I don't think too many people came out millionaires. [link] [comments] |
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