You may want to hodl right until the halving, as the banking crisis and its 'positive' crypto market effects has only just begun

Some people had started to consider that the banking crisis is over, or at least the worst of it is already done. I have to say that that is almost certainly not true, and will show why. Monetary crises like these come in waves, with banks and financial institutions falling usually one by one over a long period of time, until a breaking point where it all tends to collapse all at one. Barring a complete banking system collapse which is fairly unlikely, even if it means only the absolute biggest players will be left(and are also protected by the Fed backstop fund), this is actually bullish for crypto especially in the short to medium term.

Let us consider the series of failure of what we refer to the 2008 crisis:

• New Century fell in April 2007.
• American Home Mortgage collapsed in August 2007.
• Netbank collapsed in September 2007.
• DFC collapsed in December 2007.
• Northern Rock(collapsed and) was acquired by the government in February 2008.
• The big player Bear Sterns collapsed in March 2008.

And of course, September 2008 was when all hell broke loose.

The firm that collapsed who were really viewed as the straw that broke the camel’s back was Lehman Brothers. The advent of that even seemed to kick off everything else. MuFG also (fell and) was acquired by Morgan Stanley. PNC acquired National City. The government took over the failing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed took over AIG. Washington Mutual collapsed and control was taken by the FDIC. UBS and Credit Suisse were rescued. All three of Iceland’s major banks failed. Etc etc.

All of the above(and more that I omitted) occurred in just 2 months. All this was despite the funds and Acts and lowering of rates regulators and government put in place to prevent the collapse. And of course outside of the US, the entire European Union almost fell and 5 EU nations almost fell into a deep economic crisis(they still experienced recessions and serious economic problems regardless). This Eurozone debt crisis that happened years after between 2009 all the way to 2012.

The point is that the crisis comes in waves, the same way consumer use of banks and credit to banks comes in waves. It is in the waves where factors of a huge decrease in demand for loans, fall in interbank lending, high inflation, high customer withdrawals and rising interest rates coalesce and make an already bad situation into a catastrophic one. And it takes a long time for it all to play out.

So to say that the crisis is over would be heavily premature. I would say that you would miss out on profits if you left the markets now. Only this week did reports come out on the loss of 100B in deposits by First Republic, on which crypto markets jumped by 5%. I’m not saying that funds are necessarily moving from banks to crypto but markets are reacting to even the hint of another collapse.

We have about a year until the halving. It is likely that we will see more banking chaos, and even more failures and acquisitions on the journey there. As a further boon, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates to support this dog-crap economy and help de-stress the nervous banks a bit. If they continue raising rates, it only increase the likelihood of bank failure which is also good, again, as long as it’s not a complete system collapse. So between these two things, there is a lot of support to carry traders to the Bitcoin halving with at least decent looking profits if not better. And after that the halving will take care of everything else

TLDR: Bank and financial crises take very long times to play out. We have only just begun that process. And the crisis is bullish for crypto. Between crisis process playing out over time and whatever the Fed does on interest rates, crypto is looking like a good investment to hodl, even right up until the halving, which will bring the kind of gains that halvings do.