Last bullrun, we had a mid-bullrun dip of 55% from $64K to $29K. During peak fear in the space as China, which had the most miners, outlawed mining. Then 4 months from the bottom, we rallied to a new $69K ATH.

We've seen 30%-40% drops for Bitcoin in the middle of bullruns.

The biggest one was probably the 2021 bullrun drop and "mini bear market" from $64K to $29K.

It took 4 months to find a new ATH.

https://preview.redd.it/a2ll5fx03pne1.jpg?1370&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6283d4db38bb953c7d0bdfde3d3b65799a8e9507

As of this writing, we are at about $82K.

So we are at around a 25% drop.

To get the more average 35% drop that's within the volatility of a bullrun, we'd have to dip to around $70K.

To match the 2021 drop, we'd have to drop to around $50K.

Bitcoin's volatility has such a massive deviation, even within a bullrun, that it's really hard to tell if we're on our way into a bear winter cycle, or if we're just hitting another usual bump in the road.

What about macros and news?

It also doesn't help that news, macros, and fundamentals don't mean much for cycles and in the longer run. They've had the most impacts on shorter term reaction, and have been every unreliable for figuring out longer term bear and bull cycles.