This is why the last week of January will be a good one...and the bottom is now behind us - for the time being.

Over the past week or so this sub has been gloomy as fuck. The economy, blah, blah... Fed raising interest rates, blah, blah... War in Ukraine, blah, blah.

Guess what? It's priced in...

BTC has been falling steadily for almost three months now and even though we had a small, fake pump yesterday the week ahead is looking good. Let me tell you why... using statistics and accurate, publicly available information.

• BTC Futures are looking better than they have looked since the first week of January.
  
• Stock and bond markets have already adjusted to the reality of a less accommodating Federal Reserve monetary policy going into 2022. A rise of 0.25% this week is priced in. Anything less and the market will react very positively.
  
• The benchmark 10-year Treasury note’s yield is up 34 basis points since the beginning of the year.
  
• The Nasdaq Composite has already endured a 10% correction since the peak last November.
  
• The Federal Funds Futures market has already fully priced in an initial 25-basis-point increase in the Fed’s key policy rate.
  
• The Fed has estimated that the unemployment rate would return to its pre-pandemic level of 3.5% by the end of 2022. That will do wonders for public spending as tax receipts rise and global suuply chains continue to recover.
  

In other words, much of the supposedly negative news which caused the enormous dip is now fully priced in - barring one variable: the likelihood of War in Ukraine. For reasons that aren't pertinent to the economic information above, I'd wager there will be no costly war. Neither Russia nor the US want to risk the economic damage to the fragile, COVID-ravaged global economy.

As ever, DYOR & NFA.